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2026 United States Senate election in Minnesota

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2026 United States Senate election in Minnesota
November 3, 2026
 
Party Democratic (DFL) Republican
Incumbent U.S. senator

Tina Smith
Democratic (DFL)


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The 2026 United States Senate election in Minnesota will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Minnesota. Primary elections will be held on August 11, 2026. Democratic incumbent Tina Smith is not seeking reelection to a second full term.[1]

This will be the first U.S. Senate election in Minnesota without an incumbent since 2006.[2]

Background

Minnesota is considered a blue state at the federal and state levels. Kamala Harris won it by four percentage points in the 2024 presidential election, and the last time a Republican won a statewide race was in 2006. The most recent Senate election, in 2024, saw DFL incumbent Amy Klobuchar defeat Republican Royce White by nearly 16 points.[3] The most recent election for this seat, held in 2020, saw Smith defeat Republican nominee Jason Lewis by five points.[4] Smith was elected to her first full term with 48.74% of the vote in 2020 after winning a special election in 2018 to complete the term of former Senator Al Franken, who resigned amid sexual harassment controversies.[5]

Democrats control all statewide offices, both U.S. Senate seats, and the minimum majority in the Minnesota Senate, while the Minnesota House of Representatives and the U.S. House delegation are both evenly split.[6][7]

Democratic–Farmer–Labor primary

Background and campaign

Delegates at the SD36 DFL convention in Minneapolis turn their backs while Craig surrogate Peter McLaughlin speaks on April 11, 2026.

Former Minnesota House Speaker Melissa Hortman was reportedly considering running for the seat before her assassination in June 2025.[8]

The Democratic primary election between progressive Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan and moderate U.S. Representative Angie Craig is widely seen as a part of the national struggle between the Democratic Party's progressive and moderate factions since the 2024 U.S. elections, with endorsements split by ideology.[9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16] Flanagan has rejected accepting donations from corporate PACs or AIPAC while Craig has defended accepting them. Newsweek called the primary contest an "ideological proxy fight between Bernie Sanders-style progressivism and Bill Clinton-esque 'Third Way' centrism".[17]

Craig reportedly has the private backing of the Democratic Senate leadership, including Chuck Schumer, Kirsten Gillibrand, and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), but they have not endorsed her.[18][19][20][21][16]

In November 2025, Center Forward Committee, a centrist super PAC, spent $630,000 on online and mail ads supporting Craig.[22]

Flanagan and Craig condemned the killing of Renée Good by an ICE agent amid Trump's mass deportation campaign. Flanagan said she supports a "complete and total overhaul" of ICE and criticized Craig for being "politically expedient" and voting for the Laken Riley Act and a resolution expressing gratitude to ICE agents.[23][24] Craig said she stood by her votes and that "Flanagan ... is twisting this and trying to create some sort of political advantage ... that is disgusting".[25][26] Flanagan has since expressed support for dismantling ICE and replacing it. Craig has called that stance extreme and said it will push away independents.[27][28]

On May 27, 2026, Craig announced her withdrawal from the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party's official endorsement process days before the statewide endorsing convention, saying that it "does not reflect the full scope of the party...and the purple state."[29] Craig will still appear on the primary ballot, opting to do so without the party's endorsement.[30] The change followed reporting on an influx of new participants at the state's senate district conventions who supported Flanagan in the backlash against ICE.[31] The Flanagan campaign reported that they were on track to win the endorsement with the support of over 75% of delegates.[32] Flanagan won the endorsement by acclamation at the convention on May 30.[33]

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Angie Craig

Executive branch officials

U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
Local officials
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Peggy Flanagan

Executive branch officials

U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
  • 4 state senators[a]
  • 13 state representatives[b]
Local officials
Party officials
Labor unions
Organizations
Political parties
Declined to endorse

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives
Statewide officials

Fundraising

Italics indicate a withdrawn candidate.

Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2026
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Angie Craig (DFL) $9,290,611 $4,395,298 $4,895,313
Peggy Flanagan (DFL) $4,646,309 $3,502,299 $1,144,009
Source: Federal Election Commission[113]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[c]		 Margin
of error		 Angie
Craig		 Peggy
Flanagan		 Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[114][A] June 25–26, 2026 604 (LV) – 36% 43% – 22%
KSTP/SurveyUSA[115] June 11–16, 2026 513 (LV) ± 5.2% 41% 36% 6% 18%
GQR (D)[116][117][B] May 31 – June 3, 2026 500 (LV) – 38% 55% – 7%
Global Strategy Group (D)[118][119][C] May 26–28, 2026 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 42% – 13%
Public Policy Polling (D)[120][121][A] April 29–30, 2026 652 (LV) ± 3.8% 33% 44% – 23%
GQR (D)[122][B] January 14–20, 2026 600 (LV) – 36% 49% – 15%
Public Policy Polling (D)[123][D] January 16–17, 2026 976 (LV) ± 3.1% 28% 40% – 31%
Impact Research (D)[124][E] January 13–15, 2026 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 45% 3% 9%
NRSC (R)[125] July 4–7, 2025 559 (LV) ± 3.3% 24% 30% – 45%
Public Policy Polling (D)[126] February 14–15, 2025 668 (LV) – 22% 52% – 27%

Debate

2026 United States Senate election in Minnesota Democratic primary debate
No. Date Host Moderator Link Democratic–Farmer–Labor Democratic–Farmer–Labor
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Not invited   I  Invited  W  Withdrawn
Angie Craig Peggy Flanagan
1 Jun. 19, 2026 MPR News Eric Eskola
Cathy Wurzer		 YouTube P P

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Did not file

  • Alycia Gruenhagen, food co-op manager and perennial candidate[130]
  • Mike Ruoho, business owner[131]
  • Mark York, farmer, computer scientist, and former White House Fellow[132]

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Adam Schwarze
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Organizations
Polítical parties
Michele Tafoya
U.S. senators
Individuals
Organizations
Royce White
Individuals

Fundraising

Italics indicate a withdrawn candidate.

Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2026
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
David Hann (R) $130,453 $112,275 $18,177
Ray Petersen (R) $960 $960 $0
Mike Ruoho (R) $45 $550 $0
Adam Schwarze (R) $1,102,851 $879,423 $223,427
Michele Tafoya (R) $2,041,939 $186,972 $1,854,967
Tom Weiler (R) $105,397 $56,432 $50,725
Royce White (R) $565,894 $622,199 $82,803
Mark York (R) $56,206 $45,484 $10,721
Source: Federal Election Commission[113]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[c]		 Margin
of error		 Adam
Schwarze		 Michele
Tafoya		 Tom
Weiler		 Royce
White		 Other Undecided
KSTP/SurveyUSA[151] June 11–16, 2026 450 (LV) ± 5.4% 7% 36% 7% 15% 27% 8%
Quantus Insights (R)[152] May 6–9, 2026 663 (LV) ± 4.0% 4% 52% 2% 9% 6% 27%
Peak Insights (R)[153][F] January 31 – February 1, 2026 500 (LV) ± 4.0% 4% 41% 1% 11% 9%[d] 34%

Independents and others

Candidates

Declared

Filed paperwork

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Inside Elections[158] Likely D April 23, 2026
Race To The WH[159] Likely D May 22, 2026
RealClearPolitics[160] Likely D May 19, 2026
Sabato's Crystal Ball[161] Likely D March 4, 2026
The Cook Political Report[162] Likely D April 13, 2026
The Economist[163][e] Likely D May 22, 2026

Polling

Angie Craig vs. Michele Tafoya

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[c]		 Margin
of error		 Angie
Craig (DFL)		 Michele
Tafoya (R)		 Undecided
Impact Research (D)[164][E] May 26–28, 2026 808 (LV) ± 3.5% 51% 44% 7%
Emerson College[165] February 6–8, 2026 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 40% 13%
Impact Research (D)[166][E] July 8–11, 2025 604 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 45% 6%

Peggy Flanagan vs. Michele Tafoya

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[c]		 Margin
of error		 Peggy
Flanagan (DFL)		 Michele
Tafoya (R)		 Undecided
Impact Research (D)[164][E] May 26–28, 2026 808 (LV) ± 3.5% 51% 44% 7%
Emerson College[165] February 6–8, 2026 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 41% 12%
Impact Research (D)[166][E] July 8–11, 2025 604 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 45% 7%
Hypothetical polling

Angie Craig vs. Generic Republican

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[c]		 Margin
of error		 Angie
Craig (DFL)		 Generic
Republican		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[167] September 15–16, 2025 1,015 (V) — 47% 43% 10%

Peggy Flanagan vs. Generic Republican

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[c]		 Margin
of error		 Peggy
Flanagan (DFL)		 Generic
Republican		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[167] September 15–16, 2025 1,015 (V) — 46% 44% 10%

See also

Notes

  3. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. David Hann with 3%; "Someone else" with 6%
  5. The Economist's prediction model uses unconventional terminology. For the purpose of equivalency, their "Very Likely" ratings are formatted as a "Likely" rating while "Likely" ratings are formatted as a "Lean" rating.

Partisan clients

  1. Poll sponsored by the Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association, which supports Flanagan
  2. Poll sponsored by Flanagan's campaign
  3. Poll sponsored by the North Star Dawn PAC, which supports Craig
  4. Polling commissioned by Clear Voice Minnesota, which supports Flanagan
  5. Poll sponsored by Craig's campaign
  6. Poll sponsored by Tafoya's campaign

References

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  2. Masters, Clay (February 14, 2025). "An open Minnesota Senate seat is enticing to plenty but unclear how many will take plunge". MPR News. Archived from the original on February 14, 2025. Retrieved March 1, 2025.
  3. "Minnesota Senate Election 2024 Live Results: Amy Klobuchar Wins". www.nbcnews.com. Retrieved February 20, 2025.
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  8. Nir, David; Singer, Jeff (February 25, 2025). "Morning Digest: Ron DeSantis uses 'officially nonexistent' clout to tout wife as successor". The Downballot. Retrieved April 21, 2025.
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  90. Olson, Blois. "lunch take – Emmer Peppers Walz on Immigration". The Daily Agenda. Archived from the original on June 12, 2025. Retrieved June 12, 2025. Today, the Chairs of the Minnesota Senate and House Inclusive Democracy Caucus...threw their full support behind Lt. Governor Peggy Flanagan's U.S. Senate campaign.
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