Draft:2022 Lebanese general election in Bekaa I

2022 Lebanese general election in Bekaa I

15 May 2022
7 seats to the Parliament of Lebanon
Turnout	52.0% (1.59pp )
First party Second party Third party   Leader Samir Geagea Hassan Nasrallah Gebran Bassil Party Lebanese Forces Hezbollah FPM Leader's seat Did not stand Did not stand Batroun Last election 2 1 Seats before 2 1 1 Seats won 2 1 Seat change 0 0 0 Popular vote 18,679 16,539 5,554 Percentage 20.2% 17.9% 6.00% Swing 7.8pp 0.9pp 0.1pp   Fourth party Fifth party   Leader TBD Hagop Pakradounian Party Future Movement Tashnag Leader's seat TBD Metn Last election 1 0 Seats before 1 0 Seats won 1 1 Seat change 1 1 Popular vote 3,865 2,568 Percentage 4.2% 2.8% Swing 8.0pp -
List voting by region

Voting to elect seven members of the Lebanese parliament took place in the Bekaa I district on 15 May 2022, part of the general election of that year. The constituency had 173,815 registered voters out of whom 95 337 voted.^[1]

Background

During the 2018 Lebanese general election, the Zahle electoral district recorded a significant statistical anomaly under the newly implemented proportional representation system. Eddy Demerdjian, an Armenian Orthodox candidate running on a list backed by Hezbollah, was elected to the Parliament of Lebanon having received only 77 preferential votes. ^[2]

This outcome was a mechanical byproduct of the electoral system's quota distribution rules. The Hezbollah-aligned list secured enough total votes to surpass the electoral threshold twice, legally qualifying the ticket for two parliamentary seats. While the list's Shiite candidate secured the first seat based on high preferential turnout, no other candidate on the ticket successfully outpolled their direct sectarian competitors on rival lists. Consequently, because the list was legally entitled to a second seat and alternative sectarian slots within the district were already exhausted, the remaining mandate defaulted to Demerdjian despite his low individual vote count. ^[1]

That same election also marked the end of an era for Zahle, which splits its seven seats across a delicate mix of religious communities (two Greek Catholic, and one each for the Maronites, Greek Orthodox, Armenian Orthodox, Sunnis, and Shiites). 2018 saw the collapse of the traditional Skaff family dynasty, with the widow of former MP Elie Skaff losing alongside her entire list. ^{[1] [2]}

Demographics

The Zahle district covers 50 Towns, the area is predominantly Christian; The largest of them are Greek catholics which numbers 33,041 voters (18.0%), 27,986 (15.3%) are Maronites, 16,784 (9.2%) Greek Orthodox, 8,464 (4.6%) Armenian Orthodox, 54,737 (29.8%) Sunni, 1,833 (1.0%) Armenian Catholic, 1,311 (0.7%) evangelicals, 7,884 (4.3%) other Minorities groups, 30,415 (16.6%) Shia and 963 (0.5%) Druze. ^[3]

Lists and Parties

Ahead of the elections, eight lists were registered in the Zahle electoral district. Following the national decline of the Free Patriotic Movement, the district saw a reshuffling of traditional Christian voter alliances, creating a competitive environment between traditional establishment parties, local dynasties, and emerging reform groups associated with the October 17 Revolution. ^[4]

The Free Patriotic Movement again fielded a joint list with Hezbollah and the Tashnag Party, though without aiming to establish a single, unified parliamentary bloc post-election. Following the formal political boycott announced by Saad Hariri, the Future Movement did not officially sponsor a list; however, local party affiliates teamed up with the Lebanese Forces to run a unified list under the "Zahle the Sovereign" banner. Independent Member of Parliament Michel Daher, having previously broken away from the FPM bloc, formed the "Independent Sovereignists" list alongside local allies.

The traditional political landscape was further split by localized family-backed lists. The Popular Bloc fielded an independent list led by Myriam Skaff, seeking to leverage the historic political legacy of the Skaff family in Zahle. Similarly, Dr. Eid Azar spearheaded the "Eid Azar and Allies" list, offering an alternative centrist platform composed primarily of local professionals. ^[3]

The alternative and anti-establishment political spectrum failed to form a unified front, dividing into three separate lists. The "Change" list was registered as an alliance of local independent activists representing the core demands of the October 17 movement. Citizens in a State, led nationally by Charbel Nahas, opted out of the broader activist alliance to field its own ideologically strict list. A third secular alternative was registered under the "Speech and Action" banner, running on a platform focused strictly on regional anti-corruption and socio-economic relief for the Bekaa valley. ^{[1] [3]}

Results

Zahle the Sovereign led locally by the Lebanese Forces with the support of the Future Movement emerged as a dominant force in the popular vote. The LF list, under the broader national leadership of Samir Geagea, secured the highest individual popular vote share in the district, capturing around 20% of all the votes, a substantial positive swing of 7.8 percentage points. Despite this strong performance, the list maintained a steady count of 2 seats. Its alliance with the Future Movement which faced leadership transitions and ran without a declared head managed to secure around 4% of overall votes and won 1 seat, though it suffered a steep national swing loss of 8.0 percentage points.

The coalition “Zahle the Message”, a cross sectarian alliance between the Free Patriotic Movement, Tashnaq and Hezbollah maintained their powers especially in their strongholds such as in Aali en Nahri and Anjar. Hezbollah led by Hassan Nasrallah mounted a highly organized campaign, yielding almost 18% of the overall votes, reflecting a minor positive swing of 0.9 percentage points, and retaining its 1 seat. In the other way, the FPM led by Gebran Bassil faced significant headwinds following economic crises. In Zahle, the FPM secured 6.00% of the votes, holding onto its single seat with a negligible negative swing of 0.1 percentage points. Concerning Tashnag led by Hagop Pakradounian successfully flipped a seat in this alignment, winning 1 seat with almost 3% of the overall votes.

The Independent and Sovereignist Lists were defying the traditional duopoly, various independent, reformist, and alternative sovereignist candidates captured towns in the central and south-central pockets of the district such as Bar Elias, Saadnayel and Taalabaya. ^{[4] [6]}

References