The constituency has a unionist majority, with the combined votes for nationalist parties reaching around 35% in elections. The Ulster Unionist Party has traditionally been dominant though it has been supplanted by the Democratic Unionist Party in recent years. The constituency contains Portadown and Drumcree, key locations for the Orange Order and elections to both local councils and the Northern Ireland Assembly have seen independent candidates standing on issues related to Orange Order parades performing well.
In 1990 the sitting MP, Harold McCusker, died and the subsequent by-election was notable as for the first time since the early 1970s two UK-wide political parties stood in a Northern Ireland parliamentary election, the Conservatives and the rump of the Social Democratic Party. However the result was disappointing for the Conservatives, whilst the SDP polled a mere 154 votes. In that by-election David Trimble was elected and five years later he became leader of the Ulster Unionist Party. Trimble's leadership came in for much criticism from the rival Democratic Unionist Party and they strongly targeted the area.
In the 2001 general election there was a strong rumour that the DUP leader Ian Paisley would contest the seat himself, in the hope of unseating Trimble, but in the event he stayed in his North Antrim constituency and the DUP instead nominated David Simpson. The campaign was amongst the most bitter in the entire province, with Trimble coming in for fierce personal attacks. He benefitted, however, from the decision of the Alliance Party of Northern Ireland not to contest the seat themselves but instead support him and the UUP. When the results were counted Simpson was initially ahead and many believed he had won, but Trimble pulled ahead to hold the seat on a narrow majority of 2058.
In the subsequent 2003 assembly election the DUP were only 386 votes behind the UUP. Then in the 2005 general election Trimble was defeated by Simpson. Simpson retained his seat in the 2010 general election, although the UUP vote has remained fairly static. The nationalist vote had continued to grow until the 2019 general election, which could have made this seat a possible battleground between nationalists and unionists.[2]
Boundaries
The seat was created in boundary changes in 1983, as part of an expansion of Northern Ireland's constituencies from 12 to 17, and was predominantly made up from parts of Armagh and South Down.
in the district of Banbridge, the wards of Ballydown, Central, Edenderry, Gilford, Laurencetown, Loughbrickland, and Seapatrick.[3]
1997–2024
The district of Craigavon; and
in the district of Banbridge, the wards of Ballydown, Banbridge West, Edenderry, Fort, Gilford, Lawrencetown, Loughbrickland, Seapatrick, and The Cut.[4][5]
2024–
In Armagh City, Banbridge and Craigavon, the wards of Ballybay, the part of the Banbridge East ward to the west of the eastern boundary of the 1997–2024 Upper Bann constituency, Banbridge North, Banbridge South, Banbridge West, Bleary, Brownlow, Corcrain, Craigavon Centre, Derrytrasna, the part of the Donaghcloney ward to the west of the western boundary of the 1997–2024 Lagan Valley constituency, Gilford, Kernan, Killycomain, Knocknashane, Lough Road, the part of the Loughgall ward to the south of the northern boundary of the 1997–2024 Newry and Armagh constituency, Mahon, Mourneview, Parklake, Shankill, the part of The Birches ward to the east of the western boundary of the 1997–2024 Upper Bann constituency, and the Waringstown.[6]
